DRAM memory prices rose in the first half of this year, but it looks like that trend is about to reverse. PC and server manufacturers now have enough reserves for more than two months, so prices are likely to decline as a result of oversupply.
The latest TrendForce market report indicates that DRAM memory prices have not only stabilized, but are expected to decline between 3% and 10% on average in the coming months as a result of overstocking.
The report notes that if the current trajectory continues, memory shipments will slow in the fourth quarter as DRAM customers have been amassing a higher-than-anticipated level of DRAM inventory and DRAM vendors are now full of memory waiting to be delivered.
This is in contrast to the situation seen in the first two quarters, when Micron’s boss warned that a shortage of DRAMs threatened to send prices skyrocketing. As more people get vaccinated, demand for PCs, tablets and smartphones has remained relatively stable, but most industry experts agree that there will be a slowdown in the coming years.
TrendForce analysts provide a market segment breakdown for their Q4 2021 price estimates. PC memory prices are expected to decline by 5 to 10 percent, and even memory prices for PCs are expected to decline by 5 to 10 percent. Graphics could suffer a decline of 5 percent in the coming months.
That said, market conditions can change at any time, and this report doesn’t give us any clues as to DDR5 RAM prices, although rumors estimate that DDR5 memory will be 30% higher than DDR4 memory. .
As for prices and availability of other components such as motherboards, graphics cards, and so on, it depends on many other electronic components. For example, even the humble multilayer ceramic capacitor is harder to come by than before. And now that rare earth metal prices have skyrocketed, so anything containing electronic components is likely to become more expensive in the near future.